Fig. 4: Yearly Pan-Arctic Brier Score (BS) for initial SIC on August 1st across different experiments (2004–2023).

BS scores for initial SIC in the Control (blue line; average BS: 0.091), SIC-only (orange line; average BS: 0.055), and SIC-SIT (red line; average BS: 0.049) experiments. Dashed lines represent the 20-year averaged BS scores. The SIC-only and SIC-SIT experiments show a 40% and 46% increase in skill compared to the Control experiment, respectively.