Fig. 8: Differences in the 20-year averaged surface air temperature (SAT) for August during the hindcast period 2004–2023 (°C).

a Control experiment minus observations, (b) SIC-only experiment minus observations, (c) SIC-SIT experiment minus observations, (d) SIC-only experiment minus Control experiment, (e) SIC-SIT experiment minus Control experiment. Dotted areas indicate statistical significance based on a two-tailed Student’s t-test at the 95% confidence level.