Fig. 7: Change in fire carbon emissions under net forestation (ssp370-ssp126Lu − ssp370) over years 2070–2099.

Multi-model annual mean response of (a) fire carbon emissions (fFire; kg m⁻² year⁻¹). The global mean change and uncertainty are indicated underneath panel (a). Black dots in (a) symbolize statistically significant differences at the 95% confidence interval using a two-tailed test. Depicted to the right of (a) is a zonal mean of fFire, with the uncertainty based on the 95% confidence interval of the model spread. b Model percent agreement on the sign of the fFire response (%). Black dots in (b) symbolize 66% model agreement on the sign of the change. Also shown are (c) Pearson cross-correlation coefficients (r) between ΔfFire and tree fraction (ΔtreeFrac), grass fraction (ΔgrassFrac), crop fraction (ΔcropFrac), surface temperature (ΔT_s), and surface relative humidity (ΔRH_s). Correlations are based on each variable’s annual mean zonal mean land responses. ∘ symbolizes significant correlations at the 90% confidence interval and × symbolizes significant correlations at the 95% confidence interval according to a two-tailed test.