Fig. 2: Improved mean and changed variability for runoff projections in CMIP6 vs CMIP5. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 2: Improved mean and changed variability for runoff projections in CMIP6 vs CMIP5.

From: Finer resolutions and targeted process representations in earth system models improve hydrologic projections and hydroclimate impacts

Fig. 2

Mean and median annual runoff and model variability are compared with reconstruction (GRUN) and reanalysis (ERA5) from 1960 to 2005 for 30 major river basins. Orange and green shaded areas represent the spread of CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections, respectively. Solid lines indicate the MME mean for CMIP5 (orange), CMIP6 (green), GRUN (black), and ERA5 (pink) and dashed lines indicated MME medians. The latest generation of ESMs (CMIP6) shows significant improvement (at 95%) over CMIP5 in mean runoff for historical projections, when compared against ERA5 and GRUN [confirmed by Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p < 0.00001)]. The spread of model projections in CMIP6 ESMs seems to be much higher, which can be explained by the addition of higher number of models that generate runoff projections.

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