Fig. 3: Improved mean runoff projections but larger uncertainty in CMIP6 in comparison to CMIP5. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 3: Improved mean runoff projections but larger uncertainty in CMIP6 in comparison to CMIP5.

From: Finer resolutions and targeted process representations in earth system models improve hydrologic projections and hydroclimate impacts

Fig. 3

A Global map showing the spatial distribution of uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models, with uncertainty increases categorized as less than 35% (blue), 35–50% (yellow), and more than 50% (red). Hatching patterns indicate reference runoff capture status: white indicates both model generations captured reference runoff, dotted pattern shows both failed to capture references, cross-hatching shows CMIP5 failed to capture references, and vertical lines show CMIP6 failed to capture references. B Violin plots illustrating the variability in model projections for each river basin, with blue and red shaded areas representing the spread of model projections for CMIP6 and CMIP5, respectively. Solid black lines indicate the median variance, while dashed lines represent the 25th and 75th quartiles. CMIP6 models consistently exhibit higher variance in their runoff projections across river basins, indicating greater uncertainty in projections despite improved mean representation.

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