Fig. 4: Maps showing results from the ACCESS ESM1.5 ensemble.
From: Improved estimates of future precipitation change in climate models
Raw precipitation change (EM \((\Delta{P}^{j})\); first row); (a) annual, (b) DJF, (c) JJA), the estimated population mean of % change \(\left(\frac{{\rm{EM}}(\Delta{p}^{j})}{{\rm{EM}}(\Delta{p}^{j}_{1})}\right)\);second row; (d) annual, (e) DJF, (f) JJA), the % change estimated using the standard method (EM\(\left(\frac{\Delta{P}^{j}}{{{P}_{1}}^{j}}\right)\); third row; (g) annual, (h) DJF, (i) JJA), and \({\rm{EM}}(D)={\rm{EM}}\left(\frac{\varDelta{P}^{j}}{{{P}_{1}}^{j}}\right)-\frac{{\rm{EM}}(\varDelta{p}^{j})}{{\rm{EM}}({p}^{j}_{1})}\) (last row; j Annual, k DJF, l JJA). EM is the Ensemble Mean. Each row contains results using annual (first column), DJF (second column), and JJA (third column) means. Stippling in panels (a–g) indicates where more than 66% of the ensemble members agree on the sign of \(\varDelta {P}^{j}\). For consistency with IPCC (2021), we compare 1995–2014 from the Historical scenario with 2080–2099 from SSP370.
