Fig. 7: Constraining Pacific SST trends improves coupled model surface air temperature trends over land.
From: Robust impact of tropical Pacific SST trends on global and regional circulation in boreal winter
a DJF SAT trends (1981/82-2018/19) in ERA5. Statistically significant trends at the 5% significance level are stippled. The blue boxes represent regions impacted by Pacific SST improvement. Distribution of land SAT trends in the PacCond, NonCond, PacPace, and NonPace ensembles in (b) South Asia, (c) central North America, (d) southern Africa, and (e) tropical South America. Boxes indicate the interquartile range and median trend, while whiskers represent 10–90% of the trend distribution. Note that only trends over land grid points are quantified in panels (b–e). Thicker lines indicate where the ensemble-mean trends in the Pacific and non-Pacific ensembles are significantly different at the 5% significance level, using a two-tailed Student’s t-test. Reanalysis trends are shown by the black horizontal lines.
