Fig. 2: Lead year 3 responses.

30-member ensemble mean annual means from August 2021–July 2022, smoke minus no-smoke, for CESM2 (left column) and E3SMv2 (right column) for precipitation (a, b, anomalies greater in magnitude than about ±0.6 mm day⁻¹ are significant at the 10% level from a two-sided t-test); sea level pressure (SLP, c, d, anomalies greater in magnitude than about ±0.2 hPa are significant at the 10% level) with surface wind arrows superimposed; and 200 hPa velocity potential (CHI, e, f, anomalies greater in magnitude than about ±0.3 × 10⁶ m² s⁻¹ are significant at the 10% level). Note that the magnitude of the anomalies in (a, b) is only qualitatively comparable to the anomalies from observations (e.g., McPhaden³) since the observations are anomalies from a climatology, while the model anomalies are differences between two initialized hindcasts for the same time period.