Fig. 4: Deterioration risk curves (DRCs) and reliability plot for COVID-GMIC-DRC.

a DRCs generated by the COVID-GMIC-DRC model for patients in the test set with (faded red lines) and without adverse events (faded blue lines). The mean DRC for patients with adverse events (red dashed line) is higher than the DRC for patients without adverse events (blue dashed line) at all times. The graph also includes the ground-truth population DRC (black dashed line) computed from the test data. b Reliability plot of the DRCs generated by the COVID-GMIC-DRC model for patients in the test set. The empirical probabilities are computed by dividing the patients into deciles according to the value of the DRC at each time t. The empirical probability equals the fraction of patients in each decile that suffered adverse events up to t. This is plotted against the predicted probability, which equals the mean DRC of the patients in the decile. Perfect calibration is indicated by the diagonal black dashed line.