Fig. 8: Patient 1. The prediction results at a confidence of 93% for a patient with 19 hospital visits (19.7 years). | npj Digital Medicine

Fig. 8: Patient 1. The prediction results at a confidence of 93% for a patient with 19 hospital visits (19.7 years).

From: Conformal prediction enables disease course prediction and allows individualized diagnostic uncertainty in multiple sclerosis

Fig. 8

At four consecutive hospital visits, the patient was predicted SPMS with more than three months between the visits (years 10.0 and 14.5), followed by an RRMS prediction at year 15.6. This alternation is also associated with low p-values for RRMS and SPMS for the visits (disease course plot 2). The clinical identification of the transition occurred between years 10.0 and 13.2 (gray zone), whereas the model predicts the transition to be at year 10.0, aligning with clinical retrospective analysis.

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