Fig. 4: Propensity score-matched comparison of 24-hour mortality based on proximity to HR/SBP targets.

Propensity score-matched analyses were performed on the 18-hour MOP cohort from the MIMIC-IV dataset to assess mortality differences between subgroups whose actual HR and SBP were within or beyond 20% of target values. Two target sets were evaluated: personalized targets predicted by DynaCEL and fixed population-based targets (HR = 80 bpm, SBP = 120 mmHg). Panel a outlines the subgrouping strategy. Subgroups were stratified into those with either HR or SBP beyond 20% of targets (b–d), and those with both HR and SBP beyond 20% (e–g). Panels show distributions of deviations from DynaCEL-predicted targets (b, e) and from population-based targets (d, g). DynaCEL Dynamic Cohort Ensemble Learning, HR heart rate, SBP systolic blood pressure, MOP moment of prediction, MIMIC-IV Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care, ICU intensive care unit.