Extended Data Fig. 7: Detailed breakdown of drivers causing changes in dependence on mountain water resources as projected for 2041–2050.

As a baseline, the bottom part of each circular plot represents the number of lowland inhabitants per category 2041–2050, assuming that runoff and total water consumption remain unchanged at 1961–1970 level. The corresponding population numbers are noted under the sectors in Panel a (for example, 968 M lowland inhabitants potentially depend on essential and sufficient contributions form mountain areas). The top part of the circular plot in Panel a shows results for 2041–2050 under changed conditions as projected with the SSP2-RCP6.0 scenario, and as shown in the main text. Panels b to e then each show results for changes in only one driver, namely mountain runoff (b), mountain water consumption (c), lowland runoff (d), and lowland water consumption (e), all referring to SSP2-RCP6.0. The changes in population per category are noted above each sector for all panels, giving the numbers reported in Table 2 of the main text.