Extended Data Fig. 8: Relationships between global warming and temperature-precipitation niche displacement and between global warming and average temperature experienced.

a. Near linear relationship between global warming and temperature-precipitation niche displacement (%) due to temperature and precipitation change only (‘Climate’) and due to climate plus demographic change (‘Combined’). Linear regression results: Climate (n = 65, coefficient=14.2 % °C^-1; forcing intercept at 1960-1990 global warming of 0.3 °C); Combined 6.9 billion (n = 65, coefficient=12.0 % °C^-1, r² = 0.84); Combined 9.5 billion (n = 65, coefficient=10.9 % °C^-1, r² = 0.84); Combined 11.1 billion (n = 65, coefficient=10.5 % °C^-1, r² = 0.84). b. Mean annual temperature felt by an average person for different levels of global warming for fixed population distributions. Linear regression results: 6.9 billion (n = 65, coefficient=1.53 °C °C^-1, r² = 0.83); 9.5 billion (n = 65, coefficient=1.50 °C °C^-1, r² = 0.84); 11.1 billion (n = 65, coefficient=1.50 °C °C^-1, r² = 0.84). The shaded regions correspond to 95% two-sided confidence intervals of the estimated regression coefficients.