Extended Data Fig. 1: Relative human population density with respect to Mean Annual Temperature (MAT).

Reconstructions from ref. ¹⁴. for a. 300 BP, 500 BP (population data from HYDE database), and b. 6000 BP with population data from ArchaeoGlobe (AG) or HYDE, compared to the 1960-1990 climate (~0.3 °C above pre-industrial) with 2015 population distribution (‘Old reference’, from ref. ¹⁴) or 1980 population distribution (‘1980’, used here; as in Fig. 1a), and the smooth fitted functions for the temperature niche used previously¹⁴ (‘Old fitted’) and here (‘1980 fitted’; as in Fig. 1a) for future projections. Data presented as mean values with the shaded regions corresponding to 5-95^th percentiles. Truncation of the historical reconstructions at higher temperatures is due to excluding bins of data with too few points in them to avoid outlier effects (see ref. ¹⁴).