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The case for history in planning future food systems transformations

Nature Sustainability volume 8, pages 343–349 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

As food insecurity grows globally, foresight planning for sustainable food systems has become critical. Here we argue that history—through detailed data, case studies and methodologies—can profoundly enhance the robustness of scenario planning. By examining cases in Mozambique, Bangladesh and Holland, we illustrate how historical insights can guide interventions on local, national and transnational scales, helping to avoid unintended consequences and building resilience into future food systems.

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Fig. 1: Scenario planning without and with the integration of historical analysis and data.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the support received from BrIAS—Brussels Institute for Advanced Studies (Vrije Universiteit Brussel/Université Libre de Bruxelles) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. N.d.M. was supported by the Research Council of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (grant IRP21).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Interdisciplinary Historical Food Studies Research Group, Department of History, Archeology, Arts, Philosophy and Ethics, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

    Nel de Mûelenaere

  2. Economic and Social History Research Group, Department of History and Art History, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Jessica Dijkman

  3. Lincoln Climate Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK

    Matthew Hannaford

  4. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

    Leslie Lipper

  5. Office of Sustainable Development Goals, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

    Rathana Peou Norbert-Munns

  6. Expert Climate Change and Disaster Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    A M Nasir Uddin

Authors
  1. Nel de Mûelenaere
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  2. Jessica Dijkman
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  3. Matthew Hannaford
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  4. Leslie Lipper
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  5. Rathana Peou Norbert-Munns
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  6. A M Nasir Uddin
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Contributions

N.d.M., J.D., M.H., L.L., R.P.N.-M. and A.M.N.U. conceptualized the Perspective, developed the framework and selected the case studies. N.d.M., J.D. and M.H. drafted the initial paper, with substantial contributions from L.L. The paper was revised collaboratively by N.d.M., J.D., M.H. and L.L. J.D. managed and finalized the reference list. L.L., R.P.N.-M. and A.M.N.U. provided critical insights and suggestions, particularly on the Bangladesh case and the foresight planning process. R.P.N.-M. designed the graph. N.d.M. brought the group together, coordinated the writing process, and completed the final edits and the graph.

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Correspondence to Nel de Mûelenaere.

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Nature Sustainability thanks Eric Vanhaute and Kate Schneider for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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de Mûelenaere, N., Dijkman, J., Hannaford, M. et al. The case for history in planning future food systems transformations. Nat Sustain 8, 343–349 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01517-9

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