Fig. 1: Predicted shifts of climatic suitability for exemplary host plant and insect pest species.

Grapes (Vitis vinifera), maize (Zea mays) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show shifting climatic suitability towards higher latitudes. Aleurocanthus spiniferus, a fruit pest, Helicoverpa zea, an arable crop pest and Ips pini, a forest pest, also show northwards shifting climatic suitability under future climate conditions. Europe’s current climate already provides suitable conditions for these pests. Red areas show climatic suitability loss from 2020 to 2100. Together the red and the dark blue area show the modelled distribution in 2020. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are shown here. Images are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en/: Vitis vinifera: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Grapes_during_pigmentation.jpg; Ips pini: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ips_pini.jpg), or the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en; Zea mays: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mahane_Yehuda_Market_(9629714152).jpg; Fagus sylvatica: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Beech_(Fagus_sylvatica)_(19185865168).jpg; Helicoverpa zea: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Helicoverpa_zea_larva.jpg.) The image of Aleurocanthus spiniferus was offered as copyright free on http://www.ces.csiro.au/aicn/name_s/b_164.htm. All images were cropped to the fitting extent but remained otherwise unchanged.