Table 1 Comparison of demographic models of the invasion of Mimulus guttatus into the United Kingdom.

Model group	Number of introduced origins	Model	First introduced origin	Following introduced origins	Votes (posterior probability of best model)
A	1	A1	ALE		121
	1	A2	AKBC		276 (0.89)
	1	A3	COAST		219
	1	A4	NORTH		206
	1	A5	SOUTH		178
B	1	A2	AKBC		32
	2	B1	AKBC	ALE	45
	2	B2	AKBC	COAST	78
	2	B3	AKBC	NORTH	237 (0.48)
	2	B4	AKBC	SOUTH	172
	2	B5	ALE	AKBC	30
	2	B6	COAST	AKBC	92
	2	B7	NORTH	AKBC	183
	2	B8	SOUTH	AKBC	131
C	1	A2	AKBC		28
	2	B3	AKBC	NORTH	30
	3	C1	AKBC	NORTH,ALE	60
	3	C2	AKBC	NORTH,COAST	160 (0.53)
	3	C3	AKBC	NORTH,SOUTH	74
	3	C4	NORTH	AKBC,ALE	98
	3	C5	NORTH	AKBC,COAST	118
	3	C6	NORTH	AKBC,SOUTH	114
	3	C7	ALE	AKBC,NORTH	96
	3	C8	COAST	AKBC,NORTH	136
	3	C9	SOUTH	AKBC,NORTH	86
D	1	A2	AKBC		22
	2	B3	AKBC	NORTH	34
	3	C2	AKBC	NORTH,COAST	106
	4	D1	AKBC	NORTH,COAST,ALE	116
	4	D2	AKBC	NORTH,COAST,SOUTH	98
	4	D3	NORTH	AKBC,ALE,COAST	86
	4	D4	NORTH	AKBC,COAST,SOUTH	122
	4	D5	COAST	AKBC,NORTH,ALE	92
	4	D6	COAST	AKBC,NORTH,SOUTH	78
	4	D7	ALE	AKBC,NORTH,COAST	110
	4	D8	SOUTH	AKBC,NORTH,COAST	136 (0.55)
E	1	A2	AKBC		46
	2	B3	AKBC	NORTH	42
	3	C2	AKBC	NORTH,COAST	127
	4	D8	SOUTH	AKBC,NORTH,COAST	106
	5	E1	SOUTH	AKBC,NORTH,COAST,ALE	133
	5	E2	AKBC	NORTH,COAST,SOUTH,ALE	134
	5	E3	NORTH	AKBC,SOUTH,COAST,ALE	120
	5	E4	ALE	AKBC,NORTH,SOUTH,COAST	151 (0.55)
	5	E5	COAST	AKBC,NORTH,SOUTH,ALE	141

Stepwise comparison of demographic models of the invasion of Mimulus guttatus into the United Kingdom using 10,000 simulations for each of the model and random forest ABC model selection approach. At each step (model groups A–E), more complex introduction histories are considered while keeping the most likely models selected in previous comparison steps. The most likely model at each step is indicated in bold.

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