Fig. 1: Combined genetic and agent-based modeling analysis of the muskrat population in the Peace-Athabasca Delta.
Binary land/water maps of the Peace-Athabasca Delta study site in (a), 1974 and (b), 2016, showing conditions in wet and dry years, respectively. Polygons in (b) indicate sites at which genetic sampling of muskrat took place in 2015 (pink), 2016 (purple), or in both 2015 and 2016 (yellow). c The modeled total population and surveyed population density of muskrat in the delta. Agent model results are shown as the median of n = 30 realizations of the model. Modeled total population is two times the value of model output and is reported here even though the model simulates females only, based on a study of muskrat in the delta showing nearly even breeding season ratios of males to females12. Surveyed population density is estimated as the median density across all surveyed locations in a given year, with the number of locations observed each year varying from n = 10 to n = 62 sites10. Three successive periods of net population growth and decline are indicated in blue and red, respectively, and were selected for source sink mapping in Fig. 3.
