Fig. 1: Predicting the effects of different temperature profiles on sporozoite prevalence in experimentally infected mosquitoes.

Sporozoite prevalence (solid coloured lines) was simulated by the best fitting model (model 4; Table 1), in which the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) was determined by temporal changes in temperature and the human to mosquito transmisision probability (HMTP; c) was determined by the maximum temperature during the first 10 hours. The points show the sampled sporozoite prevalence values and the vertical lines show the 95% confidence interval estimates. A total of n = 2812 mosquitoes from all studies (including^30,35,40 and novel data) were included. The top title for each plot is the central temperature, the lower title is the biting time, the shape of the points indicate the study the data was obtained from, and the colour shows the diurnal temperature range (DTR). For all plots biting time is in Zeitgeiber time (ZT), where 12:00 is the beginning of night time.