Fig. 3: Seasonal and microclimatic temperature-dependent differences in the model-derived EIP and HMTP predicted for the Cascades region of Burkina Faso.

A Hourly changes in temperature for Tiefora, Burkina Faso. Outdoor refers to the hourly temperature logger values outside a single house. Indoor refers to the hourly temperature averaged from temperature loggers placed in six houses. The dashed lines show the mean monthly temperatures. B The expected EIP for each day. For the DTR-dependent model the solid lines show the EIP₅₀. C The expected HMTP for each day. For (B, C) the dashed line shows the predicted values corresponding the the thermal performance curves at the mean monthly temperatures (DTR-independent model), and the solid line shows the predicted values using the DTR-dependent model (Table 1: model 4), which accounts for hourly temperature changes and differences in the time of mosquito infection. For the DTR-dependent model, daily estimates were calculated as the expected values given differences in the proportions of mosquitoes biting (and being infected) at different times calculated using data from⁴³. Temperature, EIP and HMTP values are from the year 2020.