Fig. 1: Food security impacts of production failures and unilateral trade policies.

Left: domestic supply changes due to potential production declines (left column) and export restrictions (right column). The supply changes do not consider changes in trade or use of reserves and therefore represent the ‘impaired supply’ that must be recovered; the inset tables detail production and export assumptions. Right: estimated changes in world market prices arising from production declines (grey bars), additional export restrictions (yellow bars) and additional consumer stock-up attempts (teal bars). The dashed lines indicate price levels during the 2007/08 and 2010/11 food price crises. See Supplementary Information for details on data and methods.