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Land-use change and the livestock revolution increase the risk of zoonotic coronavirus transmission from rhinolophid bats

Nature Food volume 2, pages 409–416 (2021)Cite this article

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Abstract

The extent to which humans facilitate zoonotic transmission of infectious diseases is unclear. Human encroachment into wildlife habitats as a consequence of expanding urbanization, cropland area and intensive animal farming is hypothesized to favour the emergence of zoonotic diseases. Here we analyse comprehensive, high-resolution datasets on forest cover, cropland distribution, livestock density, human population, human settlements, bat species’ distribution and land-use changes in regions populated by Asian horseshoe bats (>28.5 million km2)—the species that most commonly carry severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-related coronaviruses. We identify areas at risk of SARS-related coronavirus outbreaks, showing that areas in China populated by horseshoe bats exhibit higher forest fragmentation and concentrations of livestock and humans than other countries. Our findings indicate that human–livestock–wildlife interactions in China may form hotspots with the potential to increase SARS-related coronavirus transmission from animals to humans.

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Fig. 1: Univariate spatial analysis of coronavirus outbreak drivers.
Fig. 2: Distribution comparison for coronavirus outbreak drivers.
Fig. 3: Multivariate spatial analysis of coronavirus outbreak drivers.
Fig. 4: Multivariate grouping analysis based on fragmentation, livestock (cattle, goats, pigs, sheep) and settlement attributes.
Fig. 5: Areas at risk of becoming hotspots as a result of changes in forest fragmentation (green), increase in livestock (cattle, goats, pigs, sheep) density (pink) and human settlement (purple).
Fig. 6: Possible trajectories of hotspot transition for three grouping analysis output clusters.

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Acknowledgements

M.C.R and N.G. are supported by the ENI Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), the Cariplo Foundation (SusFeed project 0737 CUP D49H170000300007) and Regione Lombardia (RUD0CONV01/ASSO project D44I20002000002). D.T.S.H. is supported by Royal Society Te Apārangi Rutherford Discovery Fellowship RDF‐MAU1701 MAU1701 and Bryce Carmine and Anne Carmine (née Percival), through the Massey University Foundation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

    Maria Cristina Rulli & Nikolas Galli

  2. Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA

    Paolo D’Odorico

  3. Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    David T. S. Hayman

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  1. Maria Cristina Rulli
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Contributions

M.C.R. designed the research. M.C.R., N.G. and D.T.S.H performed the research. M.C.R., P.D. and N.G. analysed the data. P.D., M.C.R. and D.T.S.H wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Maria Cristina Rulli.

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Peer review information Nature Food thanks Ruediger Schaldach, Xia Li and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Rulli, M.C., D’Odorico, P., Galli, N. et al. Land-use change and the livestock revolution increase the risk of zoonotic coronavirus transmission from rhinolophid bats. Nat Food 2, 409–416 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00285-x

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