Fig. 1: Predicted probability of DE sufficiency conditional on total household expenditures, before and after a simulated CT.

The horizontal axis depicts the log of total household expenditures per adult equivalent (in US$, PPP). The vertical axis depicts the share of households with sufficient intake of DE (that is, DE intake exceeds the household’s EER). The shaded area depicts the predicted increase in the share of households with sufficient DE intake following the simulated CT. Each country’s shaded area is bounded below by the pre-transfer share of households with sufficient DE intake and above by the post-transfer share of households with sufficient DE intake. The dashed vertical lines represent the upper expenditure cut-off for each expenditure quartile, as labelled.