Extended Data Fig. 4: Observed climate trends compared to model projections for 2003–2022.
From: Crop productivity in southern Africa is stagnant despite moderate climate trends
Boxplots in each panel show the distribution of simulated climate trends for (a) precipitation, (b) average daily minimum temperatures and (c) average daily maximum temperature across 35 general circulation models used in the IPCC 6th assessment report, which account for historical anthropogenic forcings up until 2014 and projected forcings under the SSP5-8.5 scenario from 2015 onward. We use the Jan-Mar period for 2003–2022 in each country. Boxes indicate 25th–75th percentile, vertical lines show minimum and maximum, and horizontal line shows median. Dashed lines show the observed trend in each country according to the two observational datasets used in the study. Observed trends were generally at the cool and wet end of climate model simulations for the study period.
