Fig. 3: Agricultural N surplus projections for different typologies and EU-27 by 2030 under different intervention scenarios.
a,b, N surplus (kgN ha−1 of agricultural area yr−1) in baseline, business as usual (BAU) and under specific scenarios (top-down analysis) using the same TMPs (a) and the improved TMPs (b) approaches. Specific scenarios are: Green Deal Fertilizer (GD-F), FAO Fertilizer (FAO-F), FAO Fertilizer and Manure (FAO-FM), Better Animal Feed (BAF) and Less Animal Product (LAP). The dark shading of the bars shows the target to halve N surplus by 2030, and the light shading of the bars shows the remaining gap to meet the target level. c,d, N surplus reductions (%) in the BAU and specific scenarios relative to the baseline period estimates with the same TMPs (c) and the improved TMPs (d) approaches. The red dashed line depicts the N surplus reduction target of 50% according to the Green Deal F2F Strategy. Values on the bars in b and d are based on the mean estimate of the c coefficient for the improved TMPs approach, while error bars reflect the respective 95% confidence interval corresponding to the linear fit of c (n = eight 5-year estimates). Values on the bars in a and c represent scenario results under the same TMP approach, using the baseline c coefficient from 2015–2019. e–h, N surplus reductions (%; e,g) and N output changes (%; f,h) relative to the baseline estimates (2015–2019) in different typologies and the EU-27 for a whole range of scenarios (bottom-up analysis) considering fertilizer and animal manure reduction under the same TMPs approach (e,f) and the improved TMPs approach (g,h). Each plot represents outcomes for each typology and the EU-27 aggregate (n = 4 per scenario). Blue markers highlight the five top-down scenarios shown in a–d). Dashed polygons represent the desired space where the target of 50% N surplus reduction is achieved while reducing fertilizer by at least 20% according to the Green Deal F2F Strategy.
