Fig. 2: Global, non-OECD, and OECD historical CO2 emissions (1959–2018) compared to SA90, IS92, SRES, RCP, SSP-BL, and SSP (CMIP6) emission scenarios.

a Global emissions with low to medium-low growth periods of ≤1% annual growth (gray shaded areas) and periods of global emissions growth above 1% (white areas). b OECD territorial/production (black) and consumption (red) emissions¹⁶ compared to scenario projections. c non-OECD territorial/production (black) and consumption emissions (red) compared to scenario projections. Historical data are presented by solid lines (SSP definitions⁸) and dashed lines (RCP definitions⁹). The definitions of OECD and non-OECD differ between the SA90¹⁹, IS92²⁰, SRES²¹, RCP and SSP databases (e.g., RCP OECD is based on OECD90 (32 countries) and thus including fewer countries than the SSP OECD category, including OECD90 + EU member states and candidates (44)). Scenarios are grouped into four cumulative emissions categories (total CO₂ emissions 1990–2100): low (bluish-green), medium-low (Blue), medium-high (orange), and high (vermillion) emissions. (Furthermore, see growth rate comparisons in Supplementary Fig. 2).