Table 1 Estimates of SToE and TtA at various latitude zones.

From: Anthropogenic influence in observed regional warming trends and the implied social time of emergence

 

Observed (NASA)

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

 

SToE21880 [TtA21880]

SToE21960 [TtA21960]

SToE22020 [TtA22020]

SToE22020 [TtA22020]

SToE22020 [TtA22020]

24°N–90°N

1976

[96]

1987

[27]

2032

[12]

2040

[20]

>2100

[>80]

24°S–24°N

1978

[98]

1988

[28]

2033

[13]

2042

[22]

>2100

[>80]

90°S–24°S

1966

[86]

1979

[19]

2030

[10]

2032

[12]

>2100

[>80]

64°N–90°N

1988

[108]

2012

[52]

2042

[22]

2054

[34]

>2100

[>80]

44°N–64°N

1976

[96]

1987

[27]

2032

[12]

2041

[21]

>2100

[>80]

24°N–44°N

1977

[97]

1988

[28]

2033

[13]

2042

[22]

>2100

[>80]

EQU–24°N

1978

[98]

1989

[29]

2034

[14]

2043

[23]

>2100

[>80]

EQU–24°S

1977

[97]

1988

[28]

2033

[13]

2042

[22]

>2100

[>80]

44°S–24°S

1966

[86]

1979

[19]

2030

[10]

2032

[12]

>2100

[>80]

64°S–44°S

1977

[97]

1988

[28]

2033

[13]

2042

[22]

>2100

[>80]

90°S–64°S

>2020

[>140]

>2020

[>60]

2057

[37]

>2100

[>80]

>2100

[>80]

  1. The estimates of SToE and TtA are shown for (a) the observed period using the TRF data from Hansen and three future scenarios about the radiative forcing based on estimates of TCR and σ using the NASA dataset for temperatures; (b) high warming/no climate policy (RCP8.5); (c) intermediate climate policy similar to a strict NDC compliance (RCP4.5); and (d) consistent with the Paris Agreement goals (RCP2.6). See Supplementary Table S33 for confidence intervals, and Supplementary Tables S22, S25S27 for sensitivity analyses with different temperature datasets.