Table 3 Estimates of SToE and TtA for selected countries.

	Observed (BEST)		RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP2.6
	SToE2₁₈₈₀ [TtA2₁₈₈₀]	SToE2₁₉₆₀ [TtA2₁₉₆₀]	SToE2₂₀₂₀ [TtA2₂₀₂₀]	SToE2₂₀₂₀ [TtA2₂₀₂₀]	SToE2₂₀₂₀ [TtA2₂₀₂₀]
Mexico	1987 [107]	2010 [50]	2040 [20]	2053 [33]	>2100 [>80]
China	1977 [97]	1988 [28]	2033 [13]	2042 [22]	>2100 [>80]
Canada	1989 [109]	2014 [54]	2042 [22]	2056 [36]	>2100 [>80]
Brazil	1977 [97]	1988 [28]	2033 [13]	2042 [22]	>2100 [>80]
Australia	1987 [107]	2011 [51]	2041 [21]	2054 [34]	>2100 [>80]
Argentina	1981 [101]	1999 [39]	2038 [18]	2046 [26]	>2100 [>80]
Russia	1988 [108]	2011 [51]	2041 [21]	2054 [34]	>2100 [>80]
India	1986 [106]	2010 [50]	2040 [20]	2053 [33]	>2100 [>80]
USA	1988 [108]	2011 [51]	2041 [21]	2054 [34]	>2100 [>80]
S. Arabia	1986 [106]	2010 [50]	2040 [20]	2053 [33]	>2100 [>80]
France	1988 [108]	2012 [52]	2042 [22]	2054 [34]	>2100 [>80]
Germany	2000 [120]	2017 [57]	2044 [24]	2076 [56]	>2100 [>80]
UK	2000 [120]	2017 [57]	2044 [24]	2067 [47]	>2100 [>80]

The estimates of SToE and TtA are shown for (a) the observed period using the TRF data from Hansen and for three future scenarios about the radiative forcing based on estimates of TCR and σ using the BEST dataset for temperatures; (b) high warming/no climate policy (RCP8.5); (c) intermediate climate policy similar to a strict NDC compliance (RCP4.5); and (d) consistent with the Paris Agreement goals (RCP2.6). See Supplementary Table S35 for confidence intervals and Supplementary Tables S24, S30, and S31 for sensitivity analyses with different temperature datasets.

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