Table 2 Comparison of forecast skills relative to climatology. Values come from Fig. 1. A Model forecast is skillful when the RMSE is smaller than that of climatology.

From: Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability

 

RMSE skill compared to climatology (days)

Model Experiment

Temperature (8–500 m)

Salinity (8–500 m)

in situ SST

ERA5 SST

SSHA

ERA5 Heat Flux

MLD

DetHiRes

11

6

16+

12

8

7

11

DetLoRes

11

5

21

14

9

7

15

EnsLoRes

33

24

60+

37

29

9

45

  1. +Forecasts with no climatology crossing due to forecast length cutoff.
  2. SST sea surface temperature, SSHA sea surface height anomaly, ERA5 ECMWF reanalysis Version 5, MLD mixed layer depth.
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