Fig. 2: Probability distributions of differences in disease incidence between calendar-based strategies (Cal), DSS-based strategies (DSS) and untreated controls (Unt).

Differences were computed for Cal vs. Unt (Cal-Unt), DSS vs. Unt (DSS-Unt) and DSS vs. Cal (DSS-Cal) strategies. While (a) describes the distributions of the expected differences across the experiments included in the dataset, (b) describes the plausible difference values predicted for a new, not yet conducted, experiment. Both types of the probability distribution are summarised by their medians, 95% probability intervals and probability of the differences being positive. CrI and PI mean credibility and predictive intervals, respectively. P(>0) indicates the probabilities of the differences being positive. Results show that the levels of reduction in disease incidence achieved with DSS and Cal compared to Unt are very similar (median reductions of −33 and −31% with Cal and DSS, respectively), although the reduction is slightly higher with Cal.