Fig. 1: From emissions to spatially resolved temperature statistics for three scenarios.
From: Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years
a The reference scenario contains historical global anthropogenic GHG and aerosol emissions and Paris Agreement NDC pledges until 2030. Two hypothetical emission scenarios branch off after the first IPCC report (1991) and after the Paris Agreement (2016) respectively. In those scenarios, the Kyoto GHG emissions of the top five largest emitters—China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia—are removed from the total emissions. All considered types of emissions are listed in Methods. b The emissions time series are translated into a probabilistic set of ΔGMT time series relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) with the MAGICC emulator16,17. Here, median ΔGMT is shown with a solid line and the likely range (66% uncertainty range, i.e., 17th–83rd percentile, according to IPCC calibrated language21) in shading. c The ΔGMT time series are used to create large ensembles of land temperature change field time series with the MESMER emulator18. The map and the time series depict the probability for an extreme hot year (i.e., a year as warm as that it occurred only about once every 100 years in pre-industrial climate at the grid cell at hand). The map shows the median probability in 2030 and the time series depict the median and the likely range for a typical grid cell within the territory of each of the five largest emitters. The typical grid-cell values are obtained by taking the land-area-weighted average of the individual percentiles across each emitter’s territory.
