Fig. 2: Country-level median warming and probability for an extreme hot year in 2030 and as a function of median ΔGMT.
From: Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years
a Map of the median of the 2030 country-level median warming (ΔT) distribution without emissions of the top five emitters during the IPCC period, without emissions of the top five emitters during the Paris period, and under current NDC pledges. b Same as a but for probability for an extreme hot year to occur instead of median warming. c Percentage of countries above selected country-level warming thresholds for different median warming distribution percentiles as a function of median ΔGMT. The dotted lines show the results for the median and the shading the results for the likely range of the country-level median warming distribution. The vertical black lines mark median ΔGMT in 2030 in each of the three scenarios. The results from all three emission scenarios are pooled together in this panel. d Same as c but for probability for an extreme hot year to occur instead of median warming.
