Fig. 4: Earth system model (ESM) ensemble means of the top-five key predictors and the simulated annual number of large fire days. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 4: Earth system model (ESM) ensemble means of the top-five key predictors and the simulated annual number of large fire days.

From: The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Fig. 4

a vapour pressure deficit (VPD), b 1000-h dead fuel moisture (F1000), c ignition component (IC), d wind speed (WS), e energy release component (ERC), f number of large fire days. Both the historical (grey, 1950–2005) and future (blue/tan, 2006–2099, left: moderate emission scenario, RCP4.5, right: high emission scenario, RCP8.5) variations of these variables are shown. Shaded areas represent ±1 standard deviation. A low-pass filter was applied to remove the highest 20% frequencies to reduce noise in the time series. Bold lines (grey: historical, blue: RCP4.5, orange: RCP8.5) refer to locally weighted smooth series with the 95% confidence intervals indicated.

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