Fig. 6: Percentage of occurrence of extreme events according to IVT threshold.

a Probability of occurrence of a daily temperature, melt or runoff value exceeding the 95% percentile Novermber-March) values (blue line and area) at one location of the area highlighted by the blue dots in d which are located below 200 m asl and over the ice mask of the MAR. The line is the mean occurrence for all the points, and the area is the lowest and highest percentages of occurrence (i.e., the 5-95% interval) considering occurrences at each individual point. The red line and area consider the same parameters as the blue line and area, but also includes the occurrence of 2-day sea-ice removal exceeding 2% (SIC > 0.02) in the region described in yellow box. SIC = 0.02 represents the 1 sigma value of all the daily SIC variations observed over 40 years. The green line and area consider the same parameters as the red line, but also includes the occurrence of swell above the 85th percentile (1980–2019) within the yellow box in d. b The histogram represents the % of occurrence collapse/calving occurring within 5 days after an AR event as a function of a IVT threshold based on the cumulative values of each continuous multi-day event. This includes 13 calving events plus the Larsen A collapse on January 25, 1995, and the winter calving event of the Larsen C during July 10–12, 2017. The pre-Larsen B refers a large calving event occurring on January 6, 2002, and the Larsen B collapse refers to the final collapse after March 2, 2002. c Time series and correlations between cumulative summer (December, January, and February) maximum IVT values during AR landfalls (green), mean summer temperature (red) and mean maximum runoff (blue) over the area highlighted by the blue dots in d.