Fig. 4: Decadal hindcasts of Sea ice extent (SIE) and subsurface ocean temperature.

a Decadal hindcasts of the total Antarctic SIE initialized in 2014 (black), 2015 (blue), and 2016 (green) along with the SIE time series in SPEAR_atm_sst_restore (magenta line) and National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) (red line). Lines in the decadal hindcast denote the ensemble mean result, while the shadings denote the ensemble spread represented by the one standard deviation. c Decadal hindcasts of ensemble mean Southern Ocean (60°S–70°S, 0°E–360°E) area averaged subsurface temperature evolutions initialized in 2016, 2015, and 2014. b and d are the same as (a) and (c) but for the Weddell Sea (55°S–74°S, 50°W–10°E). Units for the SIE and ocean temperature are 1012m2, °C, respectively.