Fig. 4: Probability of extreme precipitation given an AR.

Probability of extreme precipitation (95th percentile of daily mean precipitation) given the presence of an AR, P(XP∣AR), for ERA5 (a) and CESM UHR PD simulation (b), respectively. Changes in the probability of AR-induced extreme precipitation for 2CO2 (c) and 4CO2 (d) simulations. The zonal mean of the probability with lines representing ERA5 reanalysis (blue), present day (orange), 2CO2 (green), and 4CO2 (red) simulations are plotted as e.