Fig. 1: Excess Heat and Drought Metrics for MPI-GE against E-OBS Observations. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 1: Excess Heat and Drought Metrics for MPI-GE against E-OBS Observations.

From: Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Fig. 1

Time series of June-August Summer (a) Excess Heat, (b) Humid Heat, (c) Night Heat, and (d) May−October Rain Deficit (see methods for metric definitions) simulated by MPI-GE (color) against E-OBS observations (black; 1950–2021). Light shading represents the full ensemble spread; dark shading represents the 10th−90th percentile range of the ensemble. Thick colored lines show the 10-year average of the 50th percentile of the ensemble. The black dashed line represents this 50th percentile at the end of the 20th century, averaged over the period of 1990–1999; while the white line represents this 50th percentile the end of the 21st century, averaged over 2090–2099. Each metric is shown as a ratio with respect to its average over the period of 1950–1999, and is averaged over the European region defined by the [35–63 N, 10W–55E] domain. MPI-GE simulations are historical (1950–2005) and RCP4.5 (2006–2099) and subsampled to land grid cells where observations are available.

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