Fig. 3: Likelihood of successive end-of-century compound extremes. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 3: Likelihood of successive end-of-century compound extremes.

From: Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Fig. 3

a Likelihood of compound extremes occurring in one year, and that the following 2 or 5 years also exhibit compound extremes, for the periods starting in the years 2000–2024 (light colors), 2025–2049 (medium colors) and 2050–2074 (dark colors). Spatial distribution of likelihood of (b) 2 years of extreme compound Heat Stress and (c) compound Heat & Drought in 2025–2049 (for all metrics and extreme year frequencies see Supplementary. Fig. 3). Years of Compound Heat Stress are those exhibiting extreme Excess Heat and extreme Night Heat and/or Humid Heat. Years of extreme Compound Heat and Drought are those exhibiting both extreme Excess Heat and Rain Deficit. Years of Drought-Rain Volatility are those exhibiting extreme Rain Deficit plus extreme Excess Rain the year before and/or the year after. Extreme years are defined as those with values equal or larger than the end-of-century 50th ensemble percentile averaged over the period of 2090–2099.

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