Fig. 4: Distance to end-of-century decades of heat and drought stress. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 4: Distance to end-of-century decades of heat and drought stress.

From: Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Fig. 4

Variability in excess metrics accumulated over a decade for the whole MPI-GE ensemble spread (pale colors) and for the range between the 10th to 90th percentiles of the ensemble distribution (bright colors), shown as distance to a typical end-of-century decade. White crosses mark the same values but for observed decadal excess in E-OBS. Decadal excess metrics are calculated as the 10-year sum of the annual excess metrics. The distance to the end of the century average decade is calculated as the ratio between each decadal excess metric divided by the 50th ensemble percentile decadal excess in 2090–2099, transformed to percentage. Thus, values of 100% indicate reaching end-of-century typical decades, while values higher than 100% indicate exceeding the levels of end-of-century typical decades. This distance is calculated against the ensemble 50th percentile both for each ensemble member and E-OBS.

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