Fig. 5: Effect of AMV phase on likelihood of reaching end-of-century heat and drought levels. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 5: Effect of AMV phase on likelihood of reaching end-of-century heat and drought levels.

From: Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Fig. 5

a–d Weighted difference in likelihood of different decadal excess metrics starting in 2030–2049 reaching typical end-of-century levels under different concurrent AMV phases. This difference is shown as likelihood during AMV+ minus during AMV-, weighted by likelihood during AMV-, in percentage. AMV is defined as the concurrent 10-year running mean of North Atlantic SSTs. Distances to typical end-of-century decades are shown as the decadal excess metric at each grid cell minus the ensemble mean decadal excess in 2090–2099, also at each grid cell (see Supplementary. Fig. 4 for non-weighted AMV-phase likelihoods and differences).

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