Fig. 4: Spatial distributions of circulation-induced trends.

a, b Circulation-induced Tx5d trends as observed in CPC and ERA5 reanalysis datasets over WEU and the MUS from 1979 to 2021. c, d Average of simulated trends due to circulation changes across the ensemble members from CESM2 LE and CMIP6 MME. These trends are compared against the GMST trend.