Table 4 Land CO2 emissions (Gt CO2 yr−1) for 2050 and 2100 according to various combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and based on static versus dynamic urban land changes.

From: Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

  

Static urban

Dynamic urban

 

SSP

RCP

Mean

Range

Mean

Range

Difference

2050

ssp1

rcp26

−11.1

(−11.2, −10.8)

−10.3

(−10.6, −9.90)

0.79

 

rcp45

−3.47

(−3.53, −3.37)

−2.70

(−2.95, −2.41)

0.77

rcp60

−0.71

(−0.99, −0.48)

0.05

(−0.41, 0.463)

0.77

ssp2

rcp26

6.83

(6.33, 7.23)

8.32

(7.466, 9.065)

1.49

 

rcp45

1.93

(1.58, 2.36)

3.42

(2.721, 4.198)

1.49

rcp60

1.16

(0.82, 1.42)

2.65

(1.955, 3.258)

1.49

ssp3

rcp45

5.48

(5.01, 5.93)

6.29

(5.635, 6.940)

0.81

 

rcp60

3.16

(2.82, 3.48)

3.98

(3.439, 4.489)

0.82

ssp4

rcp26

4.66

(4.12, 5.02)

6.09

(5.214, 6.785)

1.43

 

rcp45

−0.92

(−1.26, −0.56)

0.50

(−0.17, 1.191)

1.42

rcp60

1.15

(0.88, 1.34)

2.58

(1.964, 3.095)

1.42

ssp5

rcp26

−11.1

(−11.3, −10.9)

−8.8

(−9.51, −8.04)

2.33

 

rcp45

−10.2

(−10.2, −9.98)

−7.8

(−8.49, −7.13)

2.32

rcp60

−5.16

(−5.42, −4.95)

−2.85

(−3.65, −2.11)

2.31

rcp85

−0.33

(−0.56, −0.04)

1.96

(1.183, 2.779)

2.29

2100

ssp1

26

−4.28

(−4.34, −4.13)

−3.07

(−3.42, −2.63)

1.21

 

45

−6.31

(−6.51, −5.70)

−5.12

(−5.61, −4.23)

1.19

60

−1.33

(−1.46, −1.22)

−0.17

(−0.58, 0.238)

1.16

ssp2

26

−4.96

(−5.13, −4.75)

−1.58

(−2.58, −0.54)

3.38

 

45

26.0

(21.3, 27.5)

29.3

(23.8, 31.7)

3.38

60

−0.37

(−0.50, −0.27)

3.07

(2.11, 3.99)

3.43

ssp3

45

2.68

(2.55, 2.90)

4.31

(3.79, 4.93)

1.63

 

60

3.51

(3.16, 4.04)

5.14

(4.40, 6.08)

1.64

ssp4

26

−5.89

(−6.08, −0.63)

−2.69

(-3.62, −1.68)

3.20

 

45

0.68

(0.23, 1.05)

3.80

(2.62, 4.90)

3.12

60

−0.28

(−0.54, −0.06)

2.86

(1.85, 3.82)

3.14

ssp5

26

−8.05

(−8.12, −7.96)

−1.39

(−3.01, 0.237)

6.67

 

45

−1.92

(−2.22, −1.75)

4.63

(2.80, 6.32)

6.56

60

−4.72

(−4.94, −4.43)

1.88

(0.12, 3.70)

6.59

85

−1.13

(−1.31, −0.90)

5.31

(3.61, 7.05)

6.44

  1. Static urban refers to naïve or default estimates from the Global Change Analysis Model, whereas dynamic urban accounts for projected changes in urban land from SELECT and subsequent losses in net primary production (NPP). Difference refers to dynamic urban mean – static urban mean. Ranges represent variation in non-urban lands due to Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and for harmonized and non-harmonized land classifications, as well as variable estimates of NPP.
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