Fig. 3: Atmospheric and oceanic states during the marine heatwave from high-resolution coupled simulations.

Top row: table with numbers: weather regimes based on 30 clusters using Neal et al.45, red means anticyclonic component over NWS, light blue cyclonic with weak circulation, dark blue strong cyclonic circulation. Weather regimes 9, 5, 16, 7, 2, 26 illustrated at the top (colour shading: mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies (hPa) and MSLP mean values plotted in contours (2 hPa intervals)). Other rows: averages over the Northwest European Shelf (NWS) of: a Sea surface temperature (°C) from OSTIA, OSTIA 1982–2012 climatology (Ostia-clim) and the coupled simulation CPL, b sea surface height (m)—anomaly from reference geoid, the amplitude of the variations show the tidal amplitude, c surface mixed layer depth (de Boyer Montégut22 density calculation using 0.2 °C gradient and 3 m reference level) (m) d cumulative temperature trend from shortwave radiative (SW, yellow), longwave radiative (LW, blue), sensible (SH, red) and latent (LH, cyan) heat fluxes, from entrainment (deepening of the mixed layer, grey), SW + LW + SH + LH in dashed magenta and same terms+entrainment in magenta (Eq. 1 in Methods). Also added is SW calculated with SML depth from June 1st (fixed) in yellow dotted line. Black is the actual cumulative trend. Budget is reset to cumulated dT/dt at the start of phase 4 and 6. e hourly total heat flux into the ocean (SW + LW + SH + LH).