Fig. 5: Annual total oil and gas methane emissions estimates and annual daily average conventional oil production in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

a Results were averaged over the 4 transport models, 3 prior emissions, 2 inversion methods and 2 cold periods of Nov–Dec and Jan–Mar shown as the solid red curve. The light pink shaded band shows the ±1 standard deviation (STD) of the 48,000 ensemble results for individual years except for 2022. Five-year moving averages of the ensemble means and the 2024 NIR data are shown. The dashed black curve shows the annual daily average of the total conventional heavy oil production volumes. In Canada, the first requirements of the methane regulations for the upstream oil and gas (UOG) sector took effect in 2020. b correlation analysis of the inverse estimates and 2024 NIR data for the energy sector.