Table 2 Tropical cyclone track density across US regions under historical and future climate scenarios

From: Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate

TC Frequency (per square 5 degrees, per 50,000 TCs)

Region

 

Cat-1

Cat-2

Cat-3

Cat-4

Cat-5

Northeast

Historical

10,707 ± 1646

4271 ± 773

2126 ± 385

525 ± 122

3 ± 1

Future

12,350 ± 1931

7211 ± 1145*

4781 ± 796*

2624 ± 493**

255 ± 56

Southeast

Historical

3996 ± 705

2029 ± 388

1463 ± 273

861 ± 153

104 ± 24

Future

4835 ± 841*

2762 ± 521*

2441 ± 493*

2292 ± 473**

768 ± 153**

Gulf

Historical

2480 ± 237

1407 ± 141

1209 ± 121

817 ± 79

225 ± 25

Future

3105 ± 287*

1779 ± 173*

1736 ± 162*

2070 ± 205**

1214 ± 130**

Overall

Historical

3977 ± 378

1950 ± 164

1396 ± 126

787 ± 68

185 ± 19

Future

4794 ± 386

2763 ± 237*

2324 ± 180*

2199 ± 200**

976 ± 99**

  1. Track density is computed per square 5 degrees by summing and aggregating occurrences within each 0.5 × 0.5 degree subregion for every 50,000 Atlantic tropical cyclones, based on the ensemble mean from nine models. Confidence intervals are constructed at the 95% confidence level via bootstrapping with 1000 samples. Future values marked with a (*) indicate statistically significant increases at the 90% confidence level, while (**) denotes significance at the 95% confidence level. Note that the frequency data includes multiple observations of the same storm as it traverses regions.
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