Fig. 2: El Niño moisture budget.

a–c Horizontal maps of ensemble-averaged changes in regressed DJF El Niño precipitation (shading, unit: mm day⁻¹ K⁻¹) and SST (contours, unit: K K⁻¹) anomaly in three selected time slices in the CESM1.2 model. d–o as a–c, but for concurrent changes in major contributing moisture feedback processes (shading, unit: mm day⁻¹ K⁻¹), including vertical advection of present-day background moisture by anomalous (d–f) shallow and (g–i) deep convective motion changes, j–l vertical advection of background moisture changes by present-day anomalous vertical motion, and m–o nonlinear change terms involving changes in both anomalous vertical motion and background moisture. The detailed meaning of each symbol is given in the Methods section. The Δ symbol indicates the ensemble-average change relative to the control simulation ensemble average. Stippled areas denote changes exceeding the 95% confidence level.