Fig. 7: The dimensionless RMSE error of the PDF as a function of the computational budget T.

This is derived from comparing the predicted PDF at t = 150 years under budget T at resolution R to the the full calculated PDF at a R = 2 km with all points included (i.e. no computational constraint). Results are shown for a prior distribution mean of (a) \({M}_{{t}_{0}}=10\) m a−1, (b) \({M}_{{t}_{0}}=20\) m a−1, and (c) \({M}_{{t}_{0}}=40\) m a−1. The plots are obtained by calculating the mean error over 500 trials and the shading represents the 95% interval. Colours indicate resolution: 2 km (blue), 3 km (orange), 4 km (green), 5 km (red), 6 km (purple), 7 km (brown), 8 km (pink).