Fig. 2: Physical mechanisms behind global ΔSM.
From: Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change
a Scatter plot of CMIP6 ΔSM (%) against predicted ΔSM under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2070–2099 relative to 1980–2014. Each circle corresponds to the global mean ΔSM of a CMIP6 model (see Supplementary Table 1). The red, blue, yellow, and purple colors indicate the predictions by the regression models based on CMIP6 outputs of temperature change (ΔT) only (LT), precipitation change (ΔP) only (LP), both ΔT and ΔP (LTP) and their interactions (NTP), respectively. For each ESM, the simulated ΔSM from CMIP6 outputs is plotted on the x-axis, while the predicted ΔSM by four regression models are plotted on the y-axis. The corresponding fitting line and coefficient of determination (R2) is shown, with * indicating statistically significant at 95% confidence level. b Scatterplot of future ΔT against historical T trend during 1980–2014. The dashed black line indicates the linear fitting line, with R2 shown on the top left and 95% confidence interval shown by shaded gray areas. The probability density functions (PDFs) of ΔT and T trends across CMIP6 models are shown on the left and at the bottom, respectively. c Same as (b) but for precipitation.
