Fig. 3: Emergent constraints on global ΔSM.
From: Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change
a Each circle corresponds to a CMIP6 model (Supplementary Table 1), which shows the simulated historical (1980–2014) T trend on the x-axis, P trend on y-axis, and ΔSM (2070–2099 relative to 1980–2014). The observational mean of T and P trends during the historical period are shown by the vertical and horizontal dotted lines, respectively, with the associated uncertainties indicated by the shading (±1 standard deviation, Supplementary Table 3). b The probability density functions (PDFs) of future ΔSM before (black line) and after (colored lines) constraints. The red, blue, yellow, and purple lines are the PDFs of ΔSM after applying the emergent constraints (ECs) of LT, LP, LTP and NTP, respectively. The corresponding error bars (mean ±1 standard deviation) are illustrated at the top. The star in the legend indicates that the PDF curves after constraint are statistically significantly different (p < 0.05) from that before constraints according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The coefficients of determination (R2) of the four ECs (* indicates p < 0.05), the differences in the central estimate of ΔSM after constraint relative to that before constraint (Δμ = μafter-μbefore, %) and the differences in the associated uncertainties (Δσ = (σafter-σbefore)/σbefore, %) are given by the table inset.
