Fig. 3: Soybean 2012 production anomalies in pre-industrial, factual and plus 2 °C conditions.
From: One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change
Per region (colored bars) and multi-regional total production (gray bars) anomalies are calculated by summing up the product of county-level yield model estimates and local harvested area estimates. Contributions of temperature, soil moisture and combined temperature and soil moisture conditions are determined following county-level model coefficient estimates. Confidence intervals combine both the upper and lower storyline ensemble member estimate and the 5-95% confidence interval in model predicted production estimate. The mean effects (dots) consider both average prediction estimates and ensemble average storyline estimates.
